BCS Bowl Projections-Week 13

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

Sugar Bowl: Houston vs. Michigan

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia

Week 13 Top 25

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma State
4. Stanford
5. Virginia Tech
6. Houston
7. Oregon
8. Arkansas
9. USC
10. South Carolina
11. Oklahoma
12. Georgia
13. Kansas State
14. Wisconsin
15. Michigan State
16. Michigan
17. Boise State
18. Baylor
19. TCU
20. Nebraska
21. Clemson
22. Penn State
23. West Virginia
24. Florida State
25. Notre Dame

Hiatus

Life got the best of me this week, so I didn't post predictions or anything of that sort.  I'll try to get my Week 13 Top 25 and BCS Projections up as soon as possible. 

Early Point Spreads for Week 13 Showdowns

#3 Arkansas @ #1 LSU

Line: LSU by 14

#19 Penn State @ #16 Wisconsin

Line: Wisconsin by 18.5

#2 Alabama @ #24 Auburn

Line: Alabama by 19.5

#5 Virginia Tech @ Virginia

Line: Virginia Tech by 4.5

Oregon State @ #10 Oregon

Line: Oregon by 29.5

Week 13 Top 5 Coach of the Year Candidates

1. Les Miles-LSU

2. Nick Saban-Alabama

3. Bobby Petrino-Arkansas

4. Mike Gundy-Oklahoma State

5. Steve Spurrier-South Carolina

The top 3 teams in the current BCS standings are all from the SEC West Division.  It's the same case here as well.

Quick Look at the Five Biggest Games of Week 13

What a week this is going to be...

#6 Arkansas @ #1 LSU

If LSU wins, they are in the title game.  If the Razorbacks upset, who knows?  An Arkansas win would likely cause a three way tie for the SEC West Division which would be decided by BCS rankings.  Your guess is as good as mine as to what would unfold with an upset.

#21 Penn State @ #17 Wisconsin

The winner of this game wins the Leaders Division of the Big Ten and will face Legends Division champion Michigan State in the inaugural conference championship game for the right to go to the Rose Bowl.

#3 Alabama @ #24 Auburn

Another high stakes version of the Iron Bowl.  The winner of the previous two meetings between these two teams went on to eventually win the national championship.  If Alabama can take care of business on the road, they are likely in the BCS title game for the second time in three years.

#8 Virginia Tech @ Virginia

The ACC Coastal Division and a berth to Charlotte for the conference championship game are at stake.  The winner will take on ACC Atlantic Division champ Clemson for a trip to Miami in the Orange Bowl. 

Oregon State @ #4 Oregon

Call me a homer, but this game is very big.  Oregon State is coming off what is probably their most impressive win of the season in which they soundly took care of a slumping Washington Huskies team.  The Beavers would love nothing more than to upset highly ranked Oregon in Autzen Stadium, spoiling their hopes of a third consecutive conference title and another appearance in a BCS game.  Oregon must win in order to clinch the Pac-12 North Division and later host the winner of the South Division (either UCLA, Arizona State, or Utah since USC is on a postseason ban) in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game.

Can't wait..

Another Argument for a Playoff Format

As you could probably notice in my BCS Bowl Projections for this week, there are a few teams who may fall into those games who are not as worthy as some other teams.  Teams like Rutgers, Michigan and even Houston.  The winner of the Big East gets a spot in the Orange Bowl, and as we all know, the Big East is mediocre at best.  There are still five, FIVE, teams in the Big East who have a shot mathematically at a BCS bid.  So, a team like Rutgers, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, or Pittsburgh is going to be playing in Miami come the new year whether we like it or not.  Other potential at-large teams could include an undefeated Houston and a two-loss Michigan Wolverine team.  Due to the current BCS format, three teams from the same conference cannot each play in a BCS bowl.  This is problematic in that when the BCS rankings are revealed tomorrow evening, the top 3 teams are all expected to be from the SEC West Division (LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas), which means that one of these teams is not going to be playing in a BCS game.  Instead, an average Big East champion and/or a Conference USA Houston team and/or a two loss Michigan team that didn't even win its own division may end up playing in one of the big boy bowls.  Will this season finally persuade the BCS supporters to consider adopting a playoff format? 

Top Five Heisman Trophy Candidates-Week 12

1. Trent Richardson

Season: 236 carries, 1380 yds rushing, 20 TD, 5.8 ypc
             26 receptions, 322 yards, 12.4 ypr, 2 TD

2. Andrew Luck

Season: 70.3 completion %, 2937 yards, 31 TD, 8 INT
             133 yards rushing, 2 TD, 3.4 ypc

3. Case Keenum

Season: 73.4 completion %, 4269 yards, 38 TD, 3 INT 
             54 yards rushing, 3 TD, 1.3 ypc

4. Montee Ball

Season: 223 carries, 1466 yds rushing, 25 TD, 6.6 ypc
             16 receptions, 233 yds, 14.6 ypr, 5 TD

5. Brandon Weeden

Season: 73.0 completion %, 4111 yards, 34 TD, 12 INT
             -95 yards rushing, 0 TD, -6.3 ypc

BCS Bowl Projections-Week 12

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

Sugar Bowl: Houston vs. Michigan

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers

Post Week 12 Rankings

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
4. Stanford
5. Virginia Tech
6. Oklahoma State
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Houston
10. USC
11. South Carolina
12. Kansas State
13. Georgia
14. Michigan State
15. Michigan
16. Boise State
17. Wisconsin
18. Penn State
19. Clemson
20. Baylor
21. TCU
22. Nebraska
23. Notre Dame
24. Georgia Tech
25. Virginia

Outcome of Week 12 Predictions

Final: #18 Michigan 45 #16 Nebraska 17

Prediction: Michigan 27 Nebraska 23
Point Spread: Michigan by 4

Final: #13 Kansas State 17 #23 Texas 13

Prediction: Texas 34 Kansas State 24
Point Spread: Texas by 7.5

Final: #22 Baylor 45 #5 Oklahoma 38

Prediction: Oklahoma 42 Baylor 28
Point Spread: Oklahoma by 16

Final: #18 USC 38 #4 Oregon 35

Prediction: Oregon 45 USC 31
Point Spread: Oregon by 15

Final: #11 Houston 37 SMU 7

Prediction: Houston 350 SMU 22.8
Point Spread: Houston by 21

I ended up with a very disappointing 2-3 record in picking the winners of this week's showdown games.  However, I was 4-1 against the spread which gives me some confidence heading into next week, even if it's naiive confidence.

Week 12 Predictions

Picking Week 12's five biggest games...

#16 Nebraska @ #18 Michigan

This is a huge game in the Big 10.  The winner still has a shot to win the Legends Division and play in the inaugural Big 10 championship game for the right to go to the Rose Bowl.  The winner may even get an at-large BCS berth without winning the conference.  The loser goes home with no hopes of a BCS game.  I thought Nebraska played decently last week in Happy Valley versus Penn State, but it is very tough to play on the road in front of 100,000+ fans two weeks in a row.  How many times has that been done before!?!  I think Michigan will get up for this game and get the job done.  It should be close, but they will be able to put up enough points on the disappointing Cornhuskers defense to win.  Taylor Martinez can run, but he can't pass.  You must be able to run AND pass against the Wolverine defense to have a shot.  Still, I think it'll be a nailbiter in Ann Arbor.

Prediction: Michigan 27 Nebraska 23

#13 Kansas State @ #23 Texas

I really think this will be Texas's landmark win of the season.  The Longhorn defense will slow down Kansas State QB Colin Klein enough on the ground and force enough miscues to give their offense a chance to put up some points.  Texas has run the ball well this year, and I believe that will take a toll on a very mediocre Wildcat defense.  This is a pretty big game in terms of positioning in the Big 12 for both teams, and the Longhorns will benefit from the home crowd and bounce back from the ugly 17-5 loss to Missouri last week.

Prediction: Texas 34 Kansas State 24

#5 Oklahoma @ #22 Baylor

This one should be a shootout, and Baylor is very motivated to upset the Sooners after a poor Jayhawk team nearly beat them in overtime last week.  The Bears have played quite poorly in their last four games, but this game marks a season ending three game homestand for them, and a win would give them great momentum for the last couple games.  On the other hand, Oklahoma may be disappointed in the performance of their in-state rivals Friday evening, which likely ended their own BCS title game dreams.  Both offenses are high scoring, but it is a FACT that Baylor will not be able to slow down Oklahoma's potent offense.  I bet the house on Oklahoma's defense having a better shot at slowing down Robert Griffin III and Baylor than the Bears defense slowing down Landry Jones and the Sooners.  Oklahoma should be motivated enough to get up for Baylor with a Big 12 championship still very much a possibility.  I'll give Baylor the points in the spread though.

Oklahoma 42 Baylor 28

#18 USC @ #4 Oregon

Chip Kelly relentlessly preaches to his players to not concern themselves with things of which they cannot control.  I think this philosophy has worked amazingly for the Oregon football program, but you can bet that the players have some sort of consciousness that they are right back in the thick of the national championship game discussion.  They know they need to make a statement against the Trojans.  USC is a solid football team which has really hit its stride as of late.  They are improved on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 8th in the nation in rush defense.  Matt Barkley is an underrated quarterback with very dangerous weapons in receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Lee.  Woods is reportedly questionable for this game, but I believe he will play.  This game should be close for at least three quarters, but I believe Oregon will wear down the Trojans and pull away late.  USC is much more speedy on defense than Stanford, so the Ducks should not expect a repeat of last week.  But, as they've done the last two years, I believe Oregon will be able to run the ball well, and Darron Thomas should be able to take advantage of an average-at-best Trojan pass defense.  It will be another one of those special November nights at Autzen Stadium.

Oregon 45 USC (with Robert Woods) 31 (without Robert Woods) 24

SMU @ #11 Houston

I picked this game as well because College Gameday will be there, and I really like Case Keenum.  Houston is averaging 54.7 ppg, first in the FBS, to go along with 455.7 passing yards per game, also first in the FBS.  In addition, the Cougars average 628.8 total yards per game, first in the FBS as well.  I don't care that they are in Conference USA; those numbers are GOOD.  Case Keenum is having an unreal year.  He has completed over 74% of his passes for 3951 yards, 37 TDs, and 3 INTs.  His QB rating is 193.3.  He threw for 9 TDS against Rice earlier this year.  Yes, he threw 9 TDs in ONE game.  If Houston wins out, which they will, and earns an at-large BCS bowl berth, then Case Keenum must be given an invitation to New York for the Heisman Trophy Ceremony.  Should he win it?  I don't think so, but he should at least be there.  His numbers are ridiculous.  Anyways, back to the game.  I say Case throws for 50 touchdowns against the Mustangs, Houston surrenders their average points per game allowed (22.8), and the Cougars win big again and move to 11-0.

Houston 350 SMU 22.8




 

Over 10 Months Later, Oregon Fans Will Be Yelling "War Eagle!"

Thanks to #2 Oklahoma State's unbelievable loss to Iowa State Friday evening, the BCS title game window appears much wider than before for one-loss teams such as the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oregon Ducks, who have only lost to the top ranked LSU Tigers this season.  Let's imagine that LSU wins out, including the SEC championship game.  In that scenario, they are obviously locked into a spot in the BCS title game.  If Oregon and Alabama both win out as well, things get semi-controversial.  The nod would likely go to Alabama due to their higher strength of schedule and their more competitive game with LSU.  So, Ducks fans ought to be rooting for a team on November 26th who was their greatest enemy last January in the BCS National Championship Game, the Auburn Tigers.  Alabama goes to Auburn for the Iron Bowl after hosting FCS Georgia Southern this week, which will not be a challenge of any sorts.  The Iron Bowl is an extremely rabid rivalry, and Auburn does not want Alabama in the championship game much less than Oregon does.  Auburn will come to play, and Jordan-Hare Stadium will be rocking.  The Tigers have been battle-tested all season long, playing five ranked teams (four on the road).  Although they are only 2-3 in such games, Auburn's experience will give them a chance against the Crimson Tide.  Assuming Oregon takes care of business at home against USC and Oregon State, and if Alabama loses to Auburn and LSU wins out as expected, Chip Kelly and the Ducks will be a Pac-12 championship game win away from their second consecutive BCS title game berth.  Oregon fans (myself included), better be screaming "War Eagle!" along with the Auburn faithful come next week. 

Bedlam Comes A Week Early!

In probably the most improbable outcome of the college football season, the Iowa State Cyclones stunned the #2 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys 37-31 in 2OT in Ames, Iowa.  Iowa State's defense gave up 476 yards through the air, but that may have been a good thing.  OSU only managed to put up 60 yards on the ground, forcing QB Brandon Weeden to pass it even more than he already does.  Iowa State capitalized and picked off Weeden three times, thus ending his week-long Heisman campaign and the BCS title game hopes of the Cowboys.  Bedlam next week in Stillwater may have been for a place in the national championship game for both Oklahoma State and the #5 Oklahoma Sooners, but their dreams have been crushed by the Cyclones in what was the biggest win in the history of Iowa State University football.

Week 12 Top 25

Hello college football aficionados!

Here's my PRE-Week 12 Top 25.  I am well aware Oklahoma State dropped a stunner to Iowa State earlier this evening, but that game will not affect these rankings.  Here we go...

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. Arkansas
7. Oklahoma
8. Clemson
9. Virginia Tech
10. Houston
11. South Carolina
12. Georgia
13. Kansas State
14. Boise State
15. Michigan State
16. Wisconsin
17. Nebraska
18. USC
19. Michigan
20. Penn State
21. TCU
22. Florida State
23. Notre Dame
24. Baylor
25. Georgia Tech

You might be asking why I ranked Stanford unusually high and Boise State unusually low.  Stanford dominated all year like a top 5 team coming into the Oregon game last week.  Yes, it was against lesser opponents.  However, they simply took care of business and compiled two wins over ranked teams during that same time frame, including a 65-21 dismantling of then #25 Washington and a gutsy, impressive 56-48 3OT win over then #20 USC in the Coliseum.  Stanford came into last weekend rolling, but Oregon's speed on offense was simply a mismatch for the Stanford defense which it could not overcome.  Stanford is still a top 5 team with Andrew Luck at the helm, and I expect them to win their remaining regular season games, receive an at large BCS bid, and win their second consecutive BCS bowl.  Stanford can beat anybody in the nation aside from the speedy teams like those of Oregon, LSU, or Alabama.  Now, Boise State.....I've said all year long BSU is well behind the teams they've garnered the last couple years.  Kellen Moore is a solid quarterback, no doubt, and RB Doug Martin will make an NFL team happy one day.  The Broncos came out with a nice win against then #19 Georgia in Atlanta during opening week.  It is blatantly obvious that the Bulldogs team of today is vastly improved from the one that lost their season opener.  Additionally, there have been hints all season long that this year's Boise State football team is not as dominating as the 2009 and 2010 teams.  They struggled to put away teams like Tulsa, Nevada, and Air Force until later in the game on their home turf.  And if you just woke up from a week-long coma, they were beaten on the Smurf Turf for the first time since 2005 by the Horned Frogs of TCU, the same team they defeated in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl when TCU consisted of a much better football team.  All in all, I think my rankings are reasonable.  What do you think?